Cramér Asymptotic Efficiency in a Semiparametric Model

This article is concerned with efficient estimation in a semiparametric model. We consider pseudo maximum likelihood estimation and prove that the proposed estimator is asymptotically efficient in the sense of Cramér; that is, the estimator has the smallest mean squared error.     

论秘密拘留制度的改进

2012年3月14日,十一届全国人民代表大会第五次会议对刑事诉讼法的修订使秘密拘留浮出水面,由此引发了争议。由于我国的秘密拘留制度自身存在较多缺陷,目前受制于诸多因素,比较现实可行的方法是对秘密拘留制度加以改革与完善,主要思路是:秘密拘留的适用必须坚持相称性与必要性原则;建议将"不通知家属"的批准权移交人民检察院行使;严格限缩"不通知被秘密拘留人家属"的期间;拓展通知被秘密拘留人家属的内容;绝对禁止私设法外秘密拘留场所;改革错误秘密拘留赔偿制度;加强人民检察院对秘密拘留的控制和监督。     

景气指标分类方法的理论研究与实证

景气指标分类是景气预测法中至关重要的环节.在以往的文献中,一般采用一种方法对备选指标进行景气分类,但其结果还存在优化的空间.文章采用四种典型的景气指标分类方法:峰谷对应法、时差相关分析法、K-L信息量法、灰色关联度指标分类法对同样的多个指标进行分类.按照初定方案对四种方法的结果进行综合分析,对结果进行优化调整,应用实例表明:四种方法的优化调整结果比单一方法的结果更合理、更有效、更具有科学性.     

The serene student: Evaluating a group-based mindfulness training program for MSW students

ABSTRACT

Social work educators are exploring the benefits of mindfulness training for social work pedagogy. The authors evaluate the outcomes of a mindfulness program for MSW students. The authors assessed changes in mindfulness, self-compassion, affect, mood, and impairment due to emotional distress before and after the program, and at 4-month follow-up. The authors examine how the group process may facilitate the development of mindfulness and consider how mindfulness practices can support group development and student learning. Results demonstrate that mindfulness training supports student self-regulation and well-being and suggest that the active ingredients of the group process may play a role in mindfulness training outcomes.     

《未成年人保护法》修订应充分体现儿童法和社会法定位

《未成年人保护法》是我国为未成年人赋权并提供特别保护的法律,兼具儿童法和社会法特性,既要充分肯认和体现未成年人的主体地位,又要积极回应未成年人保护的现实需求。2019年公布的《未成年人保护法(修订草案)》在立法理念和体系建构上均有重大突破,但其篇章结构和规范条文尚有待细致研讨和充实调整。以现代儿童保护体系所遵循的家庭首要责任、国家全局责任、社会协作责任内在逻辑为观照,《修订草案》可进一步优化当前铺排不畅的篇章布局,凸显政府保护责任的基础地位,同时在未成年人参与权的具体实现、监护与收养制度的均衡与贯通、网络保护责任主体和网络暴力样态的扩展等方面臻于完善。     

跨国熟人关系与越南边民入境消费习性研究——兼论跨国民族志方法的理念创新

边境地区是中国与沿线和周边国家“互联互通”的关键节点和重要枢纽,在长期的历史交往与演进中所形成的跨国民族性质乃是其基本人文特征。因此,着眼于双边民族的互动交往交流,推进边境区域、跨国民族等研究融入世界民族视野,以满足新时代要求,是民族学人类学面对的主要议题。基于现实考量、学术反思与田野分析,认为在中越边境地区,越南边民的生活、节俗等入境消费习性与跨国熟人关系有着密切的正相关性,其实质是“一带一路”倡议真正惠及沿线国家和地区民众的反映,是国家之间睦邻友好、跨国民族和谐互动的基本表现。在新时代,应不断从理念上创新民族志研究方法,以期在推动民族学人类学发展的同时,为人类发展贡献出真正的学科智慧。     

凝析气井产能和储量计算新方法

凝析气藏存在复杂的相变与相态分布，当地层压力下降到露点压力以下时，凝析油会在地层和井筒中分别析出，导致井口产气量、产油量与井底产气量、产油量之间存在质量转换，但仍遵循质量守恒定律。因此利用质量守恒建立考虑油、气两相的渗流微分方程，通过引入两相拟压力函数，推导凝析气井不稳定产能方程。在此基础上，结合物质平衡方程，利用生产动态数据拟合整个历史生产过程，不但可以获得气井目前的产能，还可以获得地层压力及各种地层参数。实例分析表明，计算结果准确可靠，有利于在凝析气井中推广使用。     

Optimal financing and dividend policy with Markovian switching regimes

This work investigates an optimal financing and dividend problem for an insurer whose surplus process is modulated by an observable continuous-time and finite-state Markov chain. We assume that the insurer should never go bankrupt by issuing new equity. The goal of the insurer is to maximize the expected present value of the dividends payout minus the discounted cost of equity issuance. We obtain the optimal policies and explicit expressions for the value functions when the risk reserve process is modeled by both upward jump model and its diffusion approximation. Numerical illustrations of the sensitivities of the model parameters are provided.     

Modeling binary familial data using Gaussian copula

Modeling binary familial data has been a challenging task due to the dependence among family members and the constraints imposed on the joint probability distribution of the binary responses. This paper investigates some useful familial dependence structures and proposes analyzing binary familial data using Gaussian copula model. Advantages of this approach are discussed as well as some computational details. An numerical example is also presented with an aim to show the capability of Gaussian copula model in more sophisticated data analysis.